The projections remain below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent, and the forecast for 2024 is down by 0.1 percentage point from the July 2023 Update to the World Economic Outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024. Others are more cyclical in nature, including the effects of monetary policy tightening necessary to reduce inflation, withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt, and extreme weather events. Some reflect the long-term consequences of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and increasing geoeconomic fragmentation. Several forces are holding back the recovery. Economic activity still falls short of its prepandemic path, especially in emerging market and developing economies, and there are widening divergences among regions. Despite economic resilience earlier this year, with a reopening rebound and progress in reducing inflation from last year’s peaks, it is too soon to take comfort. The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains slow and uneven.
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